[Book Review]
Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar
☆☆☆☆
米ドルの衰退に関する議論は、ここ数十年されているが、問題は「いつ？」ということである。単純に相対的な流通量からして、米ドルの早期の衰退は未だあり得ないと考えていたが、それのみならず、かつては基軸通貨であった英ポンドから米ドルへの主役交代の歴史的な経緯や、EUR, SDR, 中国元に関する著者の考察を読めば、他の通貨が米ドルに取って代わるには、まだまだ多くの環境整備や条件が満たされないといけないことが解る。 また、以下の本書pp.130-131のEURが抱える構造的な問題に関する記述は、最近のEU及びEURの危機的な状況をこのうえなく適切に表現している思う。長くなるが、そのまま引用すると、
*****QUOTE*****
"But most fundamentally, the problem that the euro is a currency without a state. It is the first major currency not backed by a major government, there being no euro-area government, only the national governments of the participating countries.
....[snipped]....
This absence of a euro-area government is the main factor preventing the euro from matching the dollar in international importance. When Europe develops economic and financial problems, managing them requires cooperation among its national governments, which is far from assured. When a government develops budgetary problems so serious that it is impossible to resolve them without international assistance, providing it is something on which European countries as a group must agree. Theie leaders have to negotiate a burden-sharing agreement, and then a host of national parliaments have to ratify it. The possibility that they won't do so quickly, or at all, raises fears of unpredictable financial fallout. This in turn creates reluctance on the part of central banks in other parts of the world to put their eggs in the euro basket.
" *****QUOTE*****
☆☆☆☆米ドルの衰退に関する議論は、ここ数十年されているが、問題は「いつ？」ということである。単純に相対的な流通量からして、米ドルの早期の衰退は未だあり得ないと考えていたが、それのみならず、かつては基軸通貨であった英ポンドから米ドルへの主役交代の歴史的な経緯や、EUR, SDR, 中国元に関する著者の考察を読めば、他の通貨が米ドルに取って代わるには、まだまだ多くの環境整備や条件が満たされないといけないことが解る。 また、以下の本書pp.130-131のEURが抱える構造的な問題に関する記述は、最近のEU及びEURの危機的な状況をこのうえなく適切に表現している思う。長くなるが、そのまま引用すると、
*****QUOTE*****
"But most fundamentally, the problem that the euro is a currency without a state. It is the first major currency not backed by a major government, there being no euro-area government, only the national governments of the participating countries.
....[snipped]....
This absence of a euro-area government is the main factor preventing the euro from matching the dollar in international importance. When Europe develops economic and financial problems, managing them requires cooperation among its national governments, which is far from assured. When a government develops budgetary problems so serious that it is impossible to resolve them without international assistance, providing it is something on which European countries as a group must agree. Theie leaders have to negotiate a burden-sharing agreement, and then a host of national parliaments have to ratify it. The possibility that they won't do so quickly, or at all, raises fears of unpredictable financial fallout. This in turn creates reluctance on the part of central banks in other parts of the world to put their eggs in the euro basket.
" *****QUOTE*****
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